Putin ve fázi popírání

WASHINGTON, DC – Na sklonku roku 2014 vypukla v Rusku obrovská finanční krize. Světové ceny ropy klesly od poloviny června téměř o polovinu a rubl se v prosinci propadl tak, že uzavřel rok s podobným poklesem. Mezinárodní rezervy Ruska se snížily o 135 miliard dolarů a inflace dosáhla dvouciferných hodnot. A situace se bude pouze zhoršovat.

Současná cena ropy přinutí Rusko snížit dovoz o polovinu – tento krok spolu s pokračujícím růstem inflace značně sníží životní úroveň Rusů. A když se k tomu přidá stále rozbujelejší korupce a tvrdé zmrazení likvidity, jeví se jako pravděpodobný finanční krach doprovázený poklesem výkonu o 8-10%.

Schopnost Ruska překonat současnou strázeň závisí na mocném prezidentovi země Vladimiru Putinovi. Ten však stále není připravený jednat; dokonce se dosud tváří, že žádná krize není. Během obou svých velkých veřejných prosincových vystoupení mluvil pouze o „současné situaci“. A ve své novoroční zdravici se pochlubil anexí Krymu a úspěšnou zimní olympiádou v Soči, přičemž se pečlivě vyhnul jakékoliv zmínce o ekonomice.

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