否认问题的普京

华盛顿—2014年行将结束,一场巨大的金融危机在俄罗斯爆发了。6月以来,世界油价下跌了近一半,12月卢布暴跌,到年底跌幅与石油相当。俄罗斯的国际储备减少了1,350亿美元,通货膨胀则达到了两位数。情况还在变坏。

按照当前油价,俄罗斯必须削减一半进口,再加上持续攀升的通货膨胀,俄罗斯人民的生活水平将大幅下降。除此之外,不断恶化的腐败和严重的流动性冻结以及金融崩溃携同8—10%的产出下降步步逼近。

俄罗斯是否能与当前困境周旋,取决于其强权总统普京。但普京还没有做好行动的准备;事实上,到目前为止,他还装作一副根本不存在危机的样子。在12月的两次重要公共场合中,普京只是轻描淡写地用了“当前局面”的字眼。在其新年贺词中,他夸赞了对克里米亚的吞并和成功的索契冬奥会,小心翼翼地避免提及任何关于经济的话题。

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