Aleksey Nikolskyi/AFP/Getty Images

Les alliances éphémères de la Russie au Moyen-Orient

NEW YORK – Les États-Unis ont perdu deux guerres asymétriques dans les temps modernes : une contre le Viêt-Cong au Vietnam, une autre contre les groupes terroristes au Moyen-Orient. Lorsque leur défaite a été manifeste au Vietnam, les États-Unis ont quitté la région, en laissant le vainqueur remettre de l'ordre, pour en fin de compte rejoindre la structure de sécurité et de coopération de l'ANASE. Le Moyen-Orient a été plus difficile à quitter, malgré tous les efforts de l'Amérique et reste en proie à des conflits et secoué par des alliances changeantes.

Pour le président russe Vladimir Poutine, l'agitation dans la région représente un moyen d'action important. En faisant une percée au Moyen-Orient, il espère faire revivre l'image ternie de la Russie comme puissance mondiale, restaurer son statut de principal contre-pouvoir géopolitique de l'Amérique et obtenir des éléments de négociation pour promouvoir ses préoccupations plus immédiates dans les pays étrangers proches de la Russie. D'après ses calculs, la réussite dans ces domaines consolidera son pouvoir et son soutien populaire dans son pays.

Sur ces fronts, Poutine a fait quelques progrès, en intégrant résolument la Russie dans la politique du Moyen-Orient. Mais la position de la Russie dans la région reste fragile. Elle n'est pas actuellement en mesure d'aider à établir (encore moins de superviser), un nouvel ordre régional, pour une raison simple : le Kremlin n'y a pas de véritables alliés.

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