Aleksey Nikolskyi/AFP/Getty Images

俄罗斯的短暂中东联盟

纽约—现时代,美国输掉过两场不对称战争:一是在越南输给越共,二是在中东输给恐怖组织。当越战败局已定时,美国的重点从该地区离开,让胜利者来收拾残局——并最终加入东盟安全与合作格局。相比之下,尽管美国已经尽了全力,中东但更加难以一走了之,并且仍然饱受冲突困扰和联盟变幻的冲击。

对俄罗斯总统普京而言,中东地区的混乱是一个重要机会。他希望通过在中东建立根据地重振俄罗斯已失去多时的世界强国形象,重塑其作为美国主要地缘政治对手的地位,并赢得让他在俄罗斯周边紧迫问题上拥有优势的筹码。他的算盘是,如果能在这些方面取得成功,将会巩固他的权力和国内群众支持。

在这些战线上,普京取得了一些进展,俄罗斯已经深深地打入了中东政局。但俄罗斯在该地区的地位仍然十分脆弱。目前它尚没有能力建立——更不用说监督——新的地区秩序,原因很简单:克里姆林宫在这里缺乏真正的盟友。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/9wrbrwo/zh;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.