Razones por las que la economía de Rusia no se desplomará

GINEBRA – La rápida depreciación del rublo, pese a una subida espectacular –y aparentemente desesperada– de los tipos de interés a las tantas de la noche por el Banco Central de Rusia (BCR) en el mes pasado, ha hecho reaparecer el espectro del colapso económico de Rusia en 1998. De hecho, Occidente ha procurado animar al espectro en su actual confrontación con el Presidente de Rusia, Vladimir Putin, pero, aunque no cabe duda de que la economía rusa tiene problemas, no es probable un hundimiento.

El petróleo y el gas representan más del 60 por ciento de las exportaciones de Rusia; gran parte del resto corresponde a otros productos básicos primarios. En vista de ello, la reciente bajada, repentina y profunda, de los precios del petróleo representa, evidentemente, una gran sacudida y lo suficientemente grande –al combinarse con el efecto de unas sanciones occidentales cada vez más estrictas– para provocar una recesión considerable. Para colmo de males, se prevé que los precios de los productos básicos sigan bajos durante algún tiempo. En ese caso, la pérdida de ingresos llegaría a ser mucho más que un contratiempo temporal.

Pero Rusia no está a punto de un ataque de nervios, al menos todavía no. La situación actual es muy diferente de la de 1998, cuando Rusia padecía a un tiempo un déficit fiscal y un déficit por cuenta corriente. Rusia necesitaba endeudarse y estaba haciéndolo considerablemente en divisas extranjeras, por lo que, al depreciarse el rublo, sus deudas aumentaban. La suspensión de pagos llegó a ser inevitable.

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