为何俄罗斯经济不会崩溃

日内瓦—尽管俄罗斯中央银行上个月实施了半夜加息的紧急措施,但卢布看似绝望的急剧贬值仍唤起了1998年俄罗斯经济崩溃的幽灵。事实上,西方在于俄罗斯总统普京的持续对峙中试图强化这一幽灵。但是,尽管俄罗斯经济毫无疑问麻烦重重,但全面崩溃是不可能的。

石油和天然气占据了俄罗斯出口的60%多;其他主要商品占据了剩余大部分。基于此,目前世界油价的暴跌显然构成了巨大的冲击——加上日益严厉的西方制裁的效果,足以引发一场大规模衰退。更糟糕的是,商品价格预计还会保持低位一段时间。如此看,收入损失将远大于暂时下跌。

但俄罗斯并非任人宰割的经济软柿子——至少目前还不是。今天的状况与1998年截然不同。1998年,俄罗斯存在财政和经常项目双赤字。俄罗斯需要贷款,并大量以外币贷款。这意味着当卢布贬值时,俄罗斯的债务会增加。最终,违约不可避免。

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