Rusia y Occidente después de Irak

La invasión de Irak, encabezada por EEUU, puso en cuestión la eficacia del sistema internacional actual. Si bien es probable que EEUU no logre todas sus metas en Irak, es claro que la guerra ha confirmado y fortalecido su supremacía global. ¿Cómo debería responder Rusia? ¿Dónde descansan sus intereses y que tipos de política deberían seguir sus gobernantes? En particular, ¿cómo se debería posicionar Rusia ante la incipiente rivalidad entre Europa y Estados Unidos?

La crisis iraquí reveló profundas diferencias entre EEUU y Europa occidental en materias de cultura política, ética, visión de la política internacional y el papel de la fuerza militar. Es difícil que estas diferencias rompan la alianza trasatlántica básica, construida sobre valores e intereses comunes, pero necesariamente ponen de relieve elementos de competencia, incluida la competencia por Rusia.

La guerra de Irak también ha revelado el estado crítico de las políticas exterior y de defensa de la Unión Europea. Es obvio que los intentos por hacer que Europa hablara con una sola voz fracasaron. A la luz de las incluso mayores diferencias que surgirán tras la ampliación, no es probable que estos intentos tengan éxito en el futuro. Más aún, a medida que se intensifique la confrontación con EEUU, Washington probablemente actuará para impedir toda tendencia hacia la unificación de la política exterior y de defensa de la UE. Sin una política común, la UE y sus miembros líderes seguirán en las segundas ligas del protagonismo mundial en el futuro próximo.

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