La Russie et l'Ouest après l'Irak

L'invasion de l'Irak menée par les Etats-Unis a remis en question l'efficacité du système international actuel. Alors que les Etats-Unis ne parviendront probablement pas à atteindre tous leurs objectifs en Irak, la guerre a manifestement confirmé et renforcé leur suprématie mondiale. Comment doit réagir la Russie ? Où sont ses intérêts et quel type de politique ses dirigeants doivent-ils observer ? Plus précisément, comment la Russie doit-elle se positionner vis-à-vis de la rivalité naissante entre l'Europe et les Etats-Unis ?

La crise irakienne a mis à jour de profondes différences entre les Etats-Unis et l'Europe de l'Ouest en matière de culture politique, d'éthique, d'approches sur la politique internationale et de rôle de la force militaire. Ces différences ne suffiront pas à rompre l'alliance transatlantique fondamentale basée sur des valeurs et des intérêts communs, mais elles intensifieront nécessairement la concurrence, notamment la concurrence pour la Russie.

La guerre en Irak a également révélé l'état critique des politiques de défense et extérieures de l'Union Européenne. Les tentatives visant à unifier l'Europe ont de toute évidence échoué. A la lumière de différences encore plus marquées résultant de l'agrandissement de l'Europe, ces politiques sont vouées à l'échec. De plus, alors que la confrontation avec les Etats-Unis s'intensifie, Washington agira probablement pour prévenir toute tendance à l'unification de la politique extérieure et de défense de l'UE. En l'absence d'une telle politique commune, l'UE et ses principaux membres resteront dans la deuxième ligue des joueurs mondiaux dans un avenir prévisible.

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