俄罗斯和科索牌

第比利斯—三思而后行是外交政策中的一个基本原则,正如在生活中一样。然而,布什政府又一次准备要鲁莽行事了。尽管缺乏远见被公认是在伊拉克溃败的主要原因,但美国(很可能得到英国的支持)现在正准备单方面承认科索沃独立—而不顾这一立场会给欧洲和世界带来的后果。

虽然正式名义上仍是塞尔维亚的一部分,但自1999年开始科索沃就由一个北约部队保护下的联合国委员会托管。然而,随着科索沃的阿尔巴尼亚族大多数要求建立自己的国家,及俄罗斯拒绝承认联合国斡旋者Martti Ahtisaari提出的有条件独立计划,美国决定单独采取行动了。美国并没有考虑在Martti Ahtisaari看来是不可想象的方案,即将科索沃分割,北方的一小部分归入塞尔维亚,而其余部分则与其在阿尔巴尼亚的科索沃同胞或与一个分离的国家联系在一起。美国决定抛开联合国单独行动。它认为只有一个独立的科索沃才会给西巴尔干地区带来稳定。

这种观点值得商榷—而科索沃政府的纪录意味着它是错误的。美国的立场明显是被误导了,因为它没有预见到“科索沃先例”会在别处引发不稳定、甚至潜在的暴力。

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