Rumores de guerra

Es una creencia muy extendida el que la guerra está relacionada con tiempos de bonanza económica. A menudo se dice que la Segunda Guerra Mundial sacó al mundo de la Gran Depresión y desde entonces la guerra ha acrecentado su reputación como estímulo para el crecimiento económico. Algunos incluso sugieren que el capitalismo necesita guerras y que, sin ellas, la recesión siempre se asomaría por el horizonte.

Hoy sabemos que esas afirmaciones no tienen sentido alguno. El boom de la década de 1990 mostró que la paz es económicamente más conveniente que la guerra. La Guerra del Golfo de 1991 demostró que las guerras en realidad pueden ser perjudiciales para una economía. Ese conflicto contribuyó poderosamente al surgimiento de la recesión de 1991 (la que, es necesario recordar, fue probablemente el factor clave que impidió al Presidente Bush ser reelecto en 1992).

La situación actual es, con mucho, más similar a la Guerra del Golfo que a las guerras que pueden haber contribuido al crecimiento económico. De hecho, los efectos económicos de una segunda guerra contra Irak probablemente serían más adversos. La Segunda Guerra Mundial exigió una movilización total, y fue esa movilización total, que requirió los recursos completos de un país, lo que barrió con el desempleo. Guerra total significa empleo total.

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