Rumeurs de guerre

On a tendance à croire que la guerre est profitable à l'économie. Depuis que l'on répète que c'est la Deuxième guerre mondiale qui a permis de sortir de la dépression, la guerre a la réputation de doper la croissance. Il en est même pour suggérer que le capitalisme a besoin de guerres pour éviter la récession.

On sait aujourd'hui que ces idées sont absurdes. D'un strict point de vue économique, le boom des années 1990 a montré combien la paix est préférable à la guerre. La guerre du Golfe de 1991 prouve que la guerre peut être désastreuse pour l'économie. Ce conflit a largement contribué à la récession de 1991 (qui a été un facteur-clé dans la non-réélection du premier président Bush en 1992).

La guerre qui pourrait éclater se rapproche beaucoup plus de la précédente guerre du Golfe que de celles qui ont contribué à la croissance économique. Ses conséquences seraient probablement beaucoup plus néfastes. Les pays impliqués dans la Deuxième guerre mondiale ont dû faire appel à l'ensemble de leurs ressources, ce qui a permis de balayer le chômage. La guerre totale, c'est le chômage zéro.

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