Die Flucht aus dem Rubel

PARIS – In den letzten Wochen war der Kursverfall des russischen Rubels sowie der russischen Aktienmärkte eng an den Rückgang der weltweiten Ölpreise gekoppelt. Am 15. Dezember änderte sich jedoch alles. Der Ölpreis blieb stabil, doch der Rubel sowie die Aktienpreisindizes büßten in den darauffolgenden 24 Stunden 30 Prozent ihres Wertes ein. Eine beispiellose Anstrengung der russischen Zentralbank (CBR) in den frühen Morgenstunden des 16. Dezember zur Stabilisierung des Rubels durch die Anhebung des Zinssatzes von 10,5 auf 17 Prozent erwies sich als unwirksam.  

Der Grund für den „Schwarzen Montag“ in Russland war offenkundig: die staatliche Rettung von Rosneft, des größten staatseigenen Ölunternehmens des Landes. In der Regel beruhigen Rettungsaktionen die Märkte. Doch diesmal wurde man an frühe post-sowjetische Experimente erinnert, als die CBR direkt Kredite an Unternehmen vergab – und damit zwangsläufig eine höhere Inflation schürte. Der damalige Gouverneur der CBR, Viktor Geraschtschenko, wurde einmal als der schlechteste Zentralbanker der Welt bezeichnet.

Im Jahr 2014 unterliegt die CBR stärkeren Einschränkungen als in der Ära Geraschtschenko: sie kann nämlich nicht mehr direkt Kredite an Firmen vergeben. Andererseits entwickelte sie aber ausgeklügeltere Methoden, wenn es darum geht, die gleichen Ziele zu erreichen, die auch Geraschtschenko anstrebte.

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