Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

El factor Rouhani

PALO ALTO – Las elecciones presidenciales de Irán el 19 de mayo fueron paradójicas y potencialmente fundamentales. Comenzaron como un asunto aburrido: una probable victoria para el titular, Hassan Rouhani, que se enfrentaba a un grupo heterogéneo de conservadores experimentados o principiantes. Además, desde 1981 una presidencia de dos mandatos ha sido la característica predeterminada en la República Islámica. Así, los primeros ataques contra Rouhani se vieron como esfuerzos del líder supremo Ali Jamenei, sus aliados clericales conservadores y los Guardias Revolucionarios para debilitarlo y contenerlo en su segundo mandato.

Pero entonces la contienda se agitó, cuando los conservadores se unieron alrededor de un candidato tapado, Ebrahim Raisi, jurista de línea dura con un historial de brutalidad contra la oposición. El hecho de que Jamenei lo hubiera nombrado para dirigir la mayor fuente de fondos religiosos en Irán ya no se vio como un empleo poco exigente, sino como un movimiento para posicionarlo como posible Líder Supremo en el futuro.

Se creía que, de ganar Raisi, quedaría prácticamente garantizado su éxito en la eventual batalla para suceder a Jamenei, que había sido presidente cuando fue catapultado al puesto de líder supremo tras la muerte del Ayatolá Ruholá Jomeini. Jamenei supuestamente sufre de cáncer, por lo que la cuestión de la sucesión se ha vuelto acuciante, y el considerable aparato ideológico, institucional y propagandístico de los conservadores se movilizó en favor de Raisi y contra Rouhani.

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