Atta Kenare/AFP/Getty Images

Der Rouhani-Faktor

PALO ALTO – Die Präsidentenwahl im Iran am 19. Mai war paradox und potenziell richtungsweisend. Sie begann als langweilige Angelegenheit – der wahrscheinlich siegreiche Amtsinhaber Hassan Rouhani trat gegen eine buntgemischte Auswahl ehemaliger Größen und Zukunftshoffnungen der Konservativen an. Außerdem ist eine zweite Amtszeit des Präsidenten in der Islamischen Republik seit 1981 die Norm. Frühe Attacken auf Rouhani wurden deshalb als Bestrebungen des Obersten Führers Ali Khamenei, seiner konservativen Verbündeten aus dem Klerus und der Revolutionsgarden gesehen, den Amtsinhaber für seine zweite Amtszeit zu schwächen und in Schach zu halten.

Doch die Wahl wurde zu einem hitzigen Wettstreit, als sich die Konservativen um den unbekannten Kandidaten Ebrahim Raisi scharten, einen Juristen und Hardliner, der in der Vergangenheit durch Brutalität gegen die Opposition auffiel. Die Tatsache, dass Khamenei Raisi zuvor zum Leiter der größten religiösen Stiftung des Iran ernannt hatte, wurde nun nicht mehr als Vergabe eines Versorgungspostens, sondern als ein Schritt gesehen, ihn als möglichen zukünftigen Obersten Führer in Position zu bringen.

Man glaubte weithin, dass ein Sieg Raisis seinen Erfolg im Kampf um die Nachfolge Khameinis praktisch garantieren würde. Khameini war selbst Präsident, bevor er nach dem Tod von Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini zum Obersten Führer aufstieg. Da Khameini an Krebs leiden soll, wurde nun die Frage seiner Nachfolge akut. Aus diesem Grund mobilisierte man den beträchtlichen ideologischen, institutionellen und propagandistischen Apparat der Konservativen zugunsten Raisis und gegen Rouhani.

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