凯南的复仇

伦敦—本月早些时候,俄罗斯总统普京宣布天然气巨头俄国天然气工业集团(Gazprom)将开始要求乌克兰提前支付其向乌所售天然气的款项。英国《观察家报》(The Observer)为此刊登了一则醒目的漫画,在漫画中,普京坐在一张插满锋芒毕露的匕首的宝座上,一边关闭乌克兰输气管道,一边说:“冬天来了。”漫画以亮红色为背景色,普京的胸口挂着一把铁锤、一柄镰刀和一个骷髅头。至少在一些人呢看来,冷战回来了。

但是,在我们滑入第二次冷战前,不妨好好回忆一下第一次冷战是怎么来的。共产主义的终结打消了其中一个重要原因:苏联的扩张野心和西方民主国家阻止苏联扩张的决心。但其他原因仍然存在。

美国外交家乔治·凯南(George F. Kennan)认为俄方具有神经质的不完全感和东方式的城府,而西方则恪守法律和道德。中间地带——冷静地算计利益、可能性和风险在现今仍是不可能的。

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