Europas Stagnationsüberschuss

LONDON – Während sich die übrige Welt von der großen Rezession von 2008-2009 erholt, stagniert Europa. Das Wachstum im Euroraum dürfte im kommenden Jahr 1,7% betragen. Was lässt sich dagegen tun?

Eine Lösung wäre ein schwächerer Euro. Anfang dieses Monats forderte der CEO von Airbus drastische Maßnahmen zur Abschwächung des Euro-Wechselkurses gegenüber dem Dollar um etwa 10%, von „verrückten“ USD 1,35 auf USD 1,20-1,25. Die Europäische Zentralbank hat in diesem Monat ihren Zinssatz auf Einlagen von 0 auf -0,1% gesenkt und verlangt damit faktisch eine Gebühr von den Banken dafür, dass sie ihr Geld bei der Zentralbank hinterlegen dürfen. Doch hatten diese Maßnahmen kaum Auswirkungen auf die Devisenmärkte.

Der Hauptgrund hierfür ist, dass nichts getan wird, um die Gesamtnachfrage anzukurbeln. Großbritannien, die USA und Japan haben alle ihre Geldmenge erhöht, um ihre Wirtschaft wiederzubeleben, und die Währungsabwertung hat sich zu einem wesentlichen Element des Erholungsmechanismus entwickelt. EZB-Präsident Mario Draghi deutet häufig eine quantitative Lockerung an – im vergangenen Monat wiederholte er, dass „wir ggf. schnell handeln und die Geldpolitik weiter lockern werden“ –, doch mit seinem ständigen Lavieren ähnelt er Mark Carney, dem Gouverneur der Bank von England, den ein früherer britischer Minister jüngst mit einem „unzuverlässigen Boyfriend“ verglich.

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