Le surplus de stagnation de l’Europe

LONDRES – Alors que le reste du monde se remet de la Grande Récession de 2008-2009, l'Europe stagne. La croissance de la zone euro devrait être de 1,7% l'an prochain. Que peut-on faire face à cette situation ?

Une solution consiste en un euro plus faible. Au début du mois, le chef de la direction d'Airbus a appelé à des mesures drastiques pour réduire la valeur de l'euro par rapport au dollar d'environ 10%, soit diminuer le niveau « fou » de 1,35 dollars actuellement jusqu’à une valeur située entre 1,20 et 1,25 dollars. La Banque centrale européenne a réduit ses taux de dépôt de 0 à -0,1%, ce qui revient à faire payer les banques pour déposer de l’argent à la Banque centrale. Mais ces mesures ont eu peu d'effet sur les marchés des changes.

C'est principalement parce que rien n'est fait pour stimuler la demande globale. Le Royaume-Uni, les États-Unis et le Japon ont tous augmenté la masse monétaire pour relancer leurs économies, et ont fait de la dévaluation un élément essentiel du mécanisme de reprise. Le président de la BCE Mario Draghi pointe souvent vers l'assouplissement quantitatif – le mois dernier, il a répété que, « si nécessaire, nous agirons rapidement avec davantage d'assouplissement monétaire » - mais son manque perpétuel d'engagement ressemble à celui de Mark Carney, le gouverneur de la Banque d’Angleterre, qu’un ancien ministre du gouvernement britannique a récemment comparé à un « petit ami dont on ne peut se fier ».

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