¿El gas de esquisto al rescate?

LONDRES – El mundo desarrollado está saliendo lentamente de la Gran Recesión, pero en el aire sigue pendiendo una pregunta: ¿cuál será el alcance y el ritmo de la recuperación? Un importante motivo del pesimismo ha sido la idea de que nos estamos quedando sin oportunidades de inversión, incluso desde antes de la crisis de 2008. ¿Es verdad?

La última gran fuente de innovación fue la revolución de Internet, cuyos productos se volvieron disponibles masivamente en los años 90. Tras el colapso de las puntocom a principios de la década del 2000, las economías occidentales fueron creciendo gracias a la especulación en bienes raíces y activos financieros, la que fue posible por el bajo precio del dinero. La caída posterior al 2008 simplemente puso en evidencia la falta de solidez de ese boom; si se piensa fríamente, la mediocridad de la recuperación refleja la mediocridad de las perspectivas previas. Ahora el riesgo es que ese pico de activos generado a punta de endeudamiento no haga más que perpetuar el ciclo de auges y caídas.

El economista Larry Summers ha vuelto a introducir el término “estancamiento permanente” para describir lo que nos espera. En una conferencia reciente del Fondo Monetario Internacional, planteó que a mediados de la década del 2000 el rendimiento previsto promedio de las nuevas inversiones en Estados Unidos había caído por debajo de cualquier reducción de la tasa de interés de referencia que la Reserva Federal pudiera aplicar de manera factible.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/HeKaCsi/es;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now