Ist Schiefergas die Rettung?

LONDON – Die Industrieländer lassen die Große Rezession langsam hinter sich, doch eine Frage bleibt bestehen: Wie schnell wird sich diese Erholung vollziehen und wie weit wird sie gehen? Großer Pessimismus entsteht durch die Vorstellung, dass uns die Investitionsmöglichkeiten ausgehen – und zwar schon seit der Zeit vor dem Crash 2008. Aber stimmt das auch?

Die letzte große Innovationswelle war die Internetrevolution, die uns ihre Produkte in den 1990er Jahren bescherte. Nach dem Dotcom-Zusammenbruch in den ersten Jahren des neuen Jahrtausends wurden die westlichen Ökonomien durch – mit billigem Geld ermöglichten - Spekulationen in den Bereichen Immobilien und Finanzanlagen in Gang gehalten. Der Einbruch nach 2008 förderte bloß die Zweifelhaftigkeit des vorangegangenen Booms zutage; und, nüchtern betrachtet, spiegelt die Mittelmäßigkeit der Erholung die Mittelmäßigkeit der vorherigen Aussichten wider. Derzeit besteht die Gefahr, dass ein schuldengetriebener   Höhenflug der Vermögenspreise lediglich den Boom-Bust-Zyklus fortschreibt.

Um die  bevorstehenden Entwicklungen zu beschreiben, hat der Ökonom Larry Summers den Ausdruck „säkulare Stagnation“ wieder aufs Tapet gebracht. Rund um das Jahr 2005, so argumentierte Summers auf einer jüngst abgehaltenen Konferenz des Internationalen Währungsfonds , war die durchschnittlich zu erwartende Rendite auf neue Investitionen in den Vereinigten Staaten unter jegliche durchführbare Senkung des Leitzinses der Federal Reserve gefallen.

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