大救星页岩气?

伦敦—发达世界正缓缓地从大衰退中走出,但有一个问题仍然存在:复苏会有多快?持续多久?悲观派的主要论点之一是我们缺少投资机会——自2008年大崩盘发生之前便是如此。真是这样吗?

上一个大创新潮是兴盛于20世纪90年代的互联网革命。21世纪初“点com”大崩盘后,房地产和金融资产投机——拜廉价资金所赐——维持了西方经济体的增长。冷静地看,2008年崩盘后,人们看到此前的繁荣根本不可靠;复苏不力反映了此前的前景黯淡。如今的风险是债务带来的资产繁荣只是让枯荣循环永久化了。

经济学家萨默斯(Larry Summers)再次用“长期停滞”一词来形容等待我们的前景。萨默斯在最近的国际货币基金组织(IMF)会议上指出,到2005年左右,美国新投资的平均预期回报比可以预见的所有美联储基准利率降息都要低。

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