Safia Osman/Flickr

El camino hacia la inversión plena

LONDRES Un fantasma acecha las tesorerías y bancos centrales de Occidente – es el fantasma del estancamiento secular. ¿Qué pasaría si no se llegase a lograr una recuperación sostenible de la caída económica de los años 2008 al 2013? ¿Qué pasaría si las fuentes de crecimiento económico se hubiesen secado – no temporalmente, sino de forma permanente?

El nuevo pesimismo no surge de los marxistas, quienes siempre han estado en la búsqueda de señales del próximo colapso del capitalismo, sino que proviene del corazón de la élite de los formuladores de políticas: la fuente es Larry Summers, Secretario del Tesoro del ex presidente de EE.UU. Bill Clinton y, en uno u otro momento, economista en jefe de muchas  instituciones económicas.

El razonamiento de Summers, en pocas palabras, es que si la rentabilidad esperada sobre la inversión está en caída, las tasas de interés tienen que caer en la misma medida. Sin embargo, las tasas de interés no pueden caer por debajo de cero (de hecho, pudiesen verse atrapadas por encima de cero si existe una fuerte inclinación a acumular saldos en dinero en efectivo). Esto podría dar lugar a que las expectativas de ganancias caigan por debajo del costo de los préstamos.

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