Paralelismos con 1937

NEW HAVEN – La depresión que siguió al desplome del mercado de valores en 1929 cobró un cariz peor ocho años después y la recuperación llegó sólo con el enorme estímulo económico proporcionado por la segunda guerra mundial, conflicto que costó más de sesenta millones de vidas. Cuando por fin llegó la recuperación, gran parte de Europa y Asia estaba en ruinas.

La actual situación mundial no es ni mucho menos tan espantosa, pero hay parelelismos, en particular con 1937. Ahora, como entonces, la decepción de la población se ha prolongado durante mucho tiempo y muchos están desesperados. Están empezando a temer más por su futuro económico a largo plazo y semejantes temores pueden tener consecuencias graves.

Por ejemplo, las repercusiones de la crisis financiera de 2008 en las economías ucraniana y rusa podrían ser la causa última de la reciente guerra en esa zona. Según el Fondo Monetario Internacional, tanto Ucrania como Rusia experimentaron un crecimiento espectacular de 2002 a 2007; en esos cinco años, el PIB real por habitante aumentó un 52 por ciento en Ucrania y un 46 por ciento en Rusia. Eso ya es historia: el año pasado, el aumento del PIB real por habitante ascendió sólo al 0,2 por ciento en Ucrania y a sólo el 1,3 por ciento en Rusia. El descontento provocado por semejante decepción puede ayudar a explicar la irritación de los separatistas ucranianos, el descontento de los rusos y la decisión por parte del Presidente de Rusia, Vladimir Putin, de anexionarse a Crimea y apoyar a los separatistas.

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