Параллели с 1937

Нью-Хевен – Рецессия, последовавшая за биржевым крахом 1929 взяла поворот к худшему восемь лет спустя и восстановления были достигнуты только с огромным экономическим стимулом, предоставленным Второй мировой войной: конфликтом, который стоил более 60 миллионов жизней. К тому времени как восстановление наконец прибыло, большая часть Европы и Азии лежала в руинах.

Нынешняя ситуация в мире не столь страшна, но существуют параллели, особенно с 1937 годом. Теперь, как и тогда, люди уже были разочарованы в течение длительного времени и многие из них были в отчаянии. Они стали все более опасаться за их долгосрочное экономическое будущее. И такие опасения могут иметь серьезные последствия.

Например, влияние финансового кризиса 2008 года на украинскую и российскую экономику в конечном счете могут быть причиной нынешней войны. По данным Международного валютного фонда, и Украина, и Россия испытывали впечатляющий рост с 2002 по 2007: за эти пять лет, реальный ВВП на душу населения вырос на 52% в Украине и 46% в России. Но сейчас это все позади: рост реального ВВП на душу составлял всего лишь 0,2% в прошлом году в Украине, и только 1,3% в России. Недовольство создаваемое этими разочарованиями может помочь объяснить гнев украинских сепаратистов, недовольство россиян и решение президента России Владимира Путина аннексировать Крым и поддерживать сепаратистов.

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