Alcune analogie con il 1937

NEW HAVEN – La depressione che seguì il crollo della Borsa del 1929 si fece ancora più grave otto anni dopo, mentre i primi segnali di ripresa arrivarono soltanto con il forte stimolo economico dato dalla Seconda guerra mondiale, un conflitto che costò la vita a più di sessanta milioni di persone. Quando la ripresa divenne finalmente realtà, gran parte dell'Europa e dell'Asia era ridotta in macerie.

L'attuale situazione mondiale non è neppure lontanamente così drammatica, ma è possibile notare delle analogie con quell'epoca, in particolare con ciò che accadde nel 1937. Oggi, come allora, ci sono cittadini profondamente delusi, molti dei quali sono in preda alla disperazione e sempre più preoccupati per il proprio futuro economico a lungo termine. Questa preoccupazione può avere conseguenze molto serie.

Per fare un esempio, l'impatto della crisi finanziaria del 2008 sulle economie ucraina e russa potrebbe essere tra le cause della recente guerra divampata nella regione. Secondo il Fondo monetario internazionale, tra il 2002 e il 2007 sia l'Ucraina che la Russia registrarono una crescita eccezionale: nell'arco di cinque anni, il Pil reale pro capite aveva toccato quota 52% in Ucraina e  46% in Russia. Tutto questo ormai non è che un ricordo: l'anno scorso, infatti, la crescita del Pil reale pro capite è stata soltanto dello 0,2% in Ucraina e dell'1,3% in Russia. Il malcontento scaturito da una siffatta caduta può aiutare a spiegare la rabbia dei separatisti ucraini, lo scontento dei russi e la decisione del presidente russo Vladimir Putin di annettere la Crimea e sostenere i separatisti.

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