¿Tanto boom que duele?

NEW HAVEN – En los últimos meses se intensificó la preocupación entre los expertos financieros y los medios de difusión del mundo sobre la posibilidad de una fuerte corrección en los recalentados mercados de activos –bienes raíces, acciones y bonos de largo plazo– que derive en otra crisis económica. Al público en general parece no preocuparle: Google Trends muestra un cierto aumento en el término de búsqueda «burbuja en el mercado de valores», aunque sin llegar a los extremos de 2007, mientras que las búsquedas de «burbuja en el mercado inmobiliario» son relativamente infrecuentes.

Pero la preocupación de los expertos es notoria y saludable, porque la idea de que los mercados siempre son eficientes solo puede mantenerse cuando algunas personas no lo creen completamente y piensan que pueden beneficiarse aprovechando el momento justo en el mercado. Al mismo tiempo, la agudización de esta preocupación también presenta peligros, porque no sabemos si conducirá a una reacción excesiva a la baja por parte del público.

Las agencias internacionales recientemente emitieron avisos sobre excesos especulativos en los mercados de activos y sugirieron que debemos preocuparnos por una posible crisis. En un discurso que ofreció en junio, el subdirector gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional, Min Zhu, sostuvo que los mercados de vivienda en muchos países, incluidos los de Europa, Asia y América, «muestran signos de recalentamiento». El mismo mes, el Banco de Pagos Internacionales dijo que en su Informe Anual que esos «signos resultan preocupantes».

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