Boom auf den Märkten bis es weh tut?

NEW HAVEN – In den letzten Monaten mehrten sich unter den Finanzexperten der Welt sowie in den Medien die Bedenken, wonach überhitzte Anlagemärkte – Immobilien, Aktien und langfristige Anleihen – zu einer größeren Korrektur und einer weiteren Wirtschaftskrise führen könnten. Die breite Öffentlichkeit scheint das gelassen zu sehen: Bei Google Trends zeigt sich zwar ein mäßiger Anstieg des Suchbegriffs „stock market bubble” (Aktienblase), wobei allerdings der Spitzenwert aus dem Jahr 2007 nicht erreicht wurde. Der Ausdruck „housing bubble” (Immobilienblase) wird relativ selten gesucht.

Doch die Sorge der Experten ist in ihrem Ausmaß beträchtlich und auch vernünftig, denn der Glaube, dass Märkte stets effizient seien, kann nur bestehen, wenn manche Menschen nicht ganz daran glauben und meinen, sie könnten von zeitlich gut geplanten Ein- und Ausstiegen auf den Märkten profitieren. Gleichzeitig bringt diese zunehmende Besorgnis auch Gefahren mit sich, da wir nicht wissen, ob diese Entwicklung zu einer allgemeinen Überreaktion im Abwärtsbereich führt.

Internationale Institutionen warnten kürzlich vor spekulativen Exzessen auf Anlagemärkten und deuteten an, dass wir uns hinsichtlich einer möglichen Krise Sorgen machen sollten. In einer Rede im Juni argumentierte der stellvertretende geschäftsführende Direktor des Internationalen Währungsfonds, Min Zhu, dass die Immobilienmärkte in mehreren Ländern, wie etwa auch in Europa, Asien sowie Nord- und Südamerika, „Anzeichen einer Überhitzung aufweisen.“ Im gleichen Monat hieß es im Jahresbericht der Bank für den Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich, dass derartige „Anzeichen besorgniserregend“ seien.

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