Attention aux bulles spéculatives

NEW HAVEN – Depuis quelques mois les milieux financiers et les médias craignent que des bulles sur certains marchés d'actifs (l'immobilier, la Bourse et les obligations à long terme) ne conduisent à une correction brutale et à une nouvelle crise économique. L'opinion publique ne semble guère s'en préoccuper : selon Google le nombre de recherche des termes "bulle boursière" ne marque qu'une légère augmentation, on est loin du pic de 2007, et les termes de "bulle de l'immobilier" ne suscitent qu'un nombre relativement limité de recherches.

Pourtant la préoccupation des experts est pleinement justifiée, car la croyance en l'efficacité des marchés ne peut perdurer que si quelques personnes qui n'y croient pas entièrement cherchent à en tirer profit en anticipant le comportement des marchés. Néanmoins l'inquiétude des experts peut être dangereuse, car susceptible de provoquer une réaction exagérée de l'opinion publique qui pourrait entraîner une chute des marchés.

Les agences internationales ont récemment signalé un niveau de spéculation excessif sur les marchés d'actifs, suggérant ainsi que l'on doive se préoccuper d'un risque de crise. Dans un discours prononcé en juin, le directeur général adjoint du FMI, Min Zhu, a déclaré que dans plusieurs pays (notamment en Europe, en Asie et en Amérique) le marché immobilier montrait "des signes de surchauffe". Le même mois, la Banque des règlements internationaux indiquait dans son rapport annuel que "ces signes ne sont pas inquiétants".

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