不到亡羊不补牢?

纽黑文—最近几个月来,世界金融专家和新闻媒体对房地产、股票和长期债券等资产市场的担忧日升,这可能导致市场大调整和又一场经济危机。普通公众似乎不为所动:谷歌趋势(Google Trend)表明“股市泡沫”一词的搜索量有所增加但仍未达到2007年的峰值水平,而“住房泡沫”一词搜索量相对较少。

但专家的担忧是值得关注的,也是健康的,因为市场永远有效这样的信念只能在有人不完全相信它并且认为可以通过市场择时获利时才正确。与此同时,这凸显出担忧也携带者危险,因为我们不知道它是否会导致公众在跌势中反应过度。

最近,国际机构纷纷发布警告称资产市场投机过度,认为我们应该担心可能的危机。在6月的演讲中,国际货币基金组织(IMF)副总裁朱民指出,一些欧洲、亚洲和美洲国家的住房市场“表现出过热迹象”,同一个月,国际清算银行在其年度报告(Annual Report)中说,“迹象令人担忧。”

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