«Повествовательные» риски глобальной экономики

ТОКИО – Колебания мировых экономик во многом связаны с историями, которые мы рассказываем о них и которые слышим. Эти популярные, эмоционально значимые истории иногда вдохновляют нас пойти и потратить, начать свое дело, строить новые заводы и офисные здания, а также нанимать сотрудников; в других случаях они селят страх в наших сердцах и побуждают сидеть тихо, сберегая наши ресурсы, сокращая расходы и снижая риски. Они либо стимулируют нашу «жизнерадостность», либо заглушают ее.

Посетив Японию во время своей поездки с целью выступления с предвыборными речами, я был поражен положительным влиянием связанных с экономикой историй на мышление и поведение людей, а также тем, насколько хрупки эти изменения. С того момента, как премьер-министр Синдзо Абэ вступил в должность в декабре 2012 года и начал свою программу денежных и финансовых стимулов, а также запустил структурные реформы, на доверие японцев было оказано глубокое влияние. По данным Международного валютного фонда, спад производства – разница между фактическим и потенциальным ВВП - сократился с -3,6% в 2011 году до -0,9% в 2013.

Большей части остального мира не хватает всеобъемлющей и доступной истории о позитивных изменениях вроде японской «Абэномики». Провал в производстве самых крупных развитых стран, по подсчетам МВФ, остается разочаровывающим, составив на 2013 год -3,2%, иначе говоря, это лишь полпути до уровня нормальной жизни, которая закончилась в 2009 году – худшем году мирового финансового кризиса, когда этот провал составил -5,3%.

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