I rischi di coda dell’economia globale

TOKYO – Le fluttuazioni delle economie mondiali sono in gran parte dovute alle storie che sentiamo su di loro. Questi racconti popolari, che ci coinvolgono dal punto di vista emotivo, talvolta ci spingono ad uscire e a spendere, ad avviare attività, creare nuove fabbriche e uffici e assumere dipendenti; altre volte ci mettono paura e ci inducono a stare fermi, a risparmiare, a tagliare le spese e ridurre i rischi. Possono stimolare i nostri “spiriti animali” o tenerli a bada.

In una visita in Giappone per una serie di conferenze, sono rimasto colpito dall’impatto positivo che le storie economiche hanno sul pensiero e sul comportamento della gente, e anche dalla fragilità con cui questo cambia. Dall’insediamento del primo ministro Shinzo Abe nel dicembre del 2012 e dal lancio del suo programma di stimoli monetari e fiscali e di riforma strutturale, l’impatto sulla fiducia giapponese è notevole. Secondo il Fondo monetario internazionale, il divario di produzione – la differenza tra Pil attuale e potenziale – si è ridotto passando dal -3,6% nel 2011 al -0,9% nel 2013.

Altri Paesi del mondo non possono vantare una storia di cambiamento positivo simile alla “Abenomics” giapponese. Il divario di produzione per le maggiori economie avanzate del mondo, come calcolato dal Fmi, resta deludente, attestandosi al -3.2% nel 2013, che è a meno di metà strada dai livelli normali registrati dal 2009, il peggiore anno della crisi finanziaria globale, quando il divario toccò il -5,3%.

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