下一场金融大火

纽黑文—如果说我们从2008年达到顶峰的金融危机中学到了什么,那就是预防下一场危机比大部分人所想象的难得多。有效的危机预防需要用创造性地运用好金融原则整顿我们的金融机构;还需要政客和他们的选民理解这些原则。

不幸的是,如今我们缺少的正是这样的理解。对以普罗大众为目标受众的新闻报道来说,解决方案技术性太强。而尽管人们喜欢听到“制约”和“惩罚”金融大佬,却并不热衷于要求这些人扩大或改善金融风险管理。但是,由于现有机构和行为滋生了特殊利益集团,因此我们很难摆脱它们,只能做一些轻微的调整。

金融危机仍在进行中,这场危机的主要原因是此前几年中的房价起落(美国房价在2006年见顶)。在危机前的繁荣期,屋主被鼓励大量举债投资于单一的住房,而政府为按揭投资者提供了担保。在美国,这是通过对联邦住房局(Federal Housing Administration,FHA)和房利美、房地美等按揭机构的隐性担保实现的。

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