Опасное управление рисками

ЛОНДОН – Господствующая политэкономия соглашается с теорией о том, что рынки непрерывно «очищаются». Основная идея этой теории заключается в том, что если заработная плата и цены являются абсолютно гибкими, то ресурсы будут использованы полностью таким образом, что любой удар по системе приведет к мгновенному регулированию заработной платы и цен в соответствии с новой ситуацией.

Такая общесистемная ответная реакция зависит от субъектов рынка, имеющих полную информацию о будущем, что явно является абсурдным. Однако центральные экономисты полагают, что субъекты экономической деятельности обладают достаточным количеством информации для придания их теориям достаточной степени реальности.

Аспект теории, которая применяется сугубо к финансовым рынкам, называют «теорией эффективного рынка». Прошлой осенью эта теория уже должна была быть разбита в пух и прах после финансового кризиса. Однако я сомневаюсь, что это произошло. Семьдесят лет назад Джон Мейнард Кейнс отметил ее ошибочность. Когда систему сотрясают потрясения, субъекты не знают, что будет происходить дальше . Перед угрозой такой неуверенности, они не корректируют свои расходы; вместо этого, они воздерживаются от расходов до тех пор, пока туман не рассеется, заставляя экономику резко падать.

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