Riskantes Risikomanagement

LONDON – Die Mainstream-Ökonomie hängt der Theorie an, wonach Märkte ständig geräumt sind. Die übergeordnete Idee lautet: Bei vollkommen flexiblen Löhnen und Preisen, sind auch alle Ressourcen eingesetzt, so dass jeder Schock augenblicklich zu einer Anpassung von Löhnen und Preisen an die neue Situation führt. 

Diese das ganze System umfassende Reaktionsfreudigkeit beruht auf Wirtschaftsakteuren, die über perfekte Informationen über die Zukunft verfügen. Das ist offenkundig absurd. Dennoch sind Mainstream-Ökonomen der Ansicht, dass die Akteure des Wirtschaftsgeschehens über genug Informationen verfügen, um der ökonomischen Theorie eine ausreichende Dosis Realität zu verleihen.

Jener Aspekt der Theorie, der sich speziell auf die Finanzmärkte konzentriert, wird als „Theorie der effizienten Märkte“ bezeichnet. Diese hätte nach dem Zusammenbruch des Finanzsystem im letzten Herbst eigentlich erledigt sein sollen. Aber ich bezweifle, dass es so ist. Vor siebzig Jahren beschrieb John Maynard Keynes die Trugschlüsse dieser Theorie. Wenn das System von einem Schock erschüttert wird, wissen die Akteure nicht, was als nächstes passieren wird. Angesichts dieser Unsicherheit, passen sie ihre Ausgaben nicht an. Vielmehr verzichten sie auf Ausgaben, bis sich die Nebel lichten und schicken die Wirtschaft damit in eine Abwärtsspirale.

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