Riskantní management rizik

LONDÝN – Ekonomika hlavního proudu se opírá o teorii, že trhy se neustále „pročišťují“. Hlavní myšlenka této teorie říká, že jsou-li mzdy a ceny zcela flexibilní, zdroje budou plně využité, takže každý šok pro systém vyústí v okamžitou adaptaci mezd a cen na novou situaci.

Schopnost celého systému pohotově reagovat závisí na tom, že ekonomičtí činitelé mají dokonalé informace o budoucnosti, což je zjevně absurdní. Ekonomové hlavního proudu nicméně věří, že ekonomičtí aktéři mají dost informací na to, aby to jejich teoretizování propůjčilo postačující dávku reálnosti.

Aspekt této teorie vztahující se konkrétně na finanční trhy se nazývá „teorie efektivních trhů“ a tu mělo finanční zhroucení loni na podzim rozmetat na kusy. Pochybuji ale, že se tak stalo. John Maynard Keynes na tento blud poukázal už před sedmdesáti lety. Když systém zasáhnou šoky, aktéři nevědí, co se bude dít dál . Tváří v tvář nejistotě své výdaje neupravují, nýbrž namísto toho útraty pozastaví, dokud se mlžný opar nezdvihne, čímž ekonomiku uvrhnou do střemhlavého pádu.

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