Paul Lachine

Motores de crecimiento peligrosos

WASHINGTON, DC – Mientras el mundo rico se recupera de la crisis, los países en desarrollo en su conjunto se están convirtiendo en el nuevo motor del crecimiento global. Cada vez más son una fuerza que impulsa hacia delante a las economías avanzadas. No obstante, cambiar de locomotoras siempre conlleva cierto riesgo.

Como sostenemos mi colega Marcelo Giugale y yo en nuestro reciente libro, The Day After Tomorrow (El día después de mañana), hay al menos cuatro esferas en las que se lleva a cabo este relevo. En primer lugar, en la mayoría de las economías emergentes las hojas de balance públicas y privadas son relativamente sanas. Mientras que  en las economías avanzadas se está llevando a cabo un proceso de desapalancamiento, muchos países en desarrollo podrán explorar oportunidades de inversión que no se han aprovechado –el ejemplo más evidente de ello son los cuellos de botella en infraestructura.

En segundo lugar, hay una gran cantidad de tecnologías que el mundo en desarrollo aún no adquiere, adopta o adapta. Gracias a los adelantos en información y comunicaciones, es cada vez más barato  y seguro transferir esas tecnologías. Además, la disminución en los costos del transporte y la disolución de las cadenas de producción verticales en muchos sectores están facilitando la integración de los países más pobres a la economía global.

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