Paul Lachine

Локомотивы рискованного экономического роста

ВАШИНГТОН, ОКРУГ КОЛУМБИЯ. Пока богатый мир приводит в порядок свой дом после кризиса, развивающиеся страны становятся новым локомотивом экономического роста. Все в большей степени они становятся силой, которая тянет развитые экономики вперед. Но смена локомотивов никогда не было абсолютно безопасным мероприятием.

Как утверждаем мы с моим коллегой Марчело Джугале в нашей недавно вышедшей книге «Послезавтра…», существует минимум четыре пути, на которых эта смена происходит. Во-первых, балансовые отчеты государственного и частного сектора в большинстве развивающихся экономик относительно чистые. В то время как в развитых странах происходит дегиринг, многие развивающиеся страны смогут воспользоваться неиспользованными инвестиционными возможностями – проблемы с инфраструктурой являются ярким тому подтверждением.

Во-вторых, существует большой список технологий, которые развивающемуся миру предстоит приобрести, применить и приспособить. Благодаря прорыву в информационных средствах и средствах связи, передача этих технологий становится все дешевле и безопаснее. Более того, уменьшившиеся расходы на транспортировку и разделение вертикального серийного производства во многих секторах способствуют интеграции более бедных стран в мировую экономику.

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