Paul Lachine

Rischiosi motori di crescita

WASHINGTON – Mentre i paesi ricchi stanno ripristinando la loro situazione in seguito alla crisi, i paesi in via di sviluppo stanno diventando, complessivamente, il nuovo motore della crescita globale. Sono sempre più una forza in grado di portare avanti le economie avanzate. Ma cambiare locomotiva comporta sempre qualche rischio.

Come ho sottolineato assieme a Marcelo Giugale nel nostro ultimo libro The Day After Tomorrow (Dopodomani n.d.t.), sono almeno quattro i binari lungo i quali si sta verificando questo cambiamento. Innanzitutto, i bilanci del settore pubblico e privato della maggior parte delle economie emergenti sono relativamente puliti. Inoltre, mentre le economie avanzate sono occupate in processi di sdebitamento, diversi paesi in via di sviluppo possono esplorare nuove opportunità di investimento; le strozzature delle infrastrutture ne sono un esempio lampante.

In secondo luogo, c’è un ampio inventario di tecnologie che il mondo in via di sviluppo deve ancora acquisire, adottare e al quale si deve adattare. Grazie ai progressi dell’informazione e della comunicazione, il trasferimento di queste tecnologie sta diventando sempre più economico e sicuro. Inoltre, la riduzione dei costi di trasporto e la disgregazione delle catene di produzione verticale in molti settori stanno facilitando l’integrazione dei paesi più poveri nell’economia globale.

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