Paul Lachine

Les risques liés aux nouveaux moteurs de la croissance

WASHINGTON, DC – Pendant que les pays avancés mettent de l’ordre dans leurs affaires à la suite de la crise, les pays en développement sont en train de devenir les nouveaux moteurs de la croissance mondiale. Ils sont de plus en plus la force qui tire les économies avancées. Mais changer de locomotive n’est jamais exempt de risques.

Comme Marcelo Giugale et moi-même l’expliquons dans notre récent ouvrage The Day After Tomorrow (Le monde de demain), il y a au moins quatre voies sur lesquelles s’opère cette transition. Tout d’abord, les bilans des secteurs privé et public de la plupart des économies émergentes sont relativement sains. Comme les économies avancées poursuivent leur mouvement de désendettement, plusieurs pays en développement auront accès à des occasions d’investissement jusqu’alors inexplorées – la pénurie d’infrastructures en est un exemple criant.

Ensuite, le monde en développement doit encore acquérir et adapter un large éventail de technologies. Grâce à l’amélioration des communications et des échanges d’informations, le transfert de ces technologies peut se faire plus sûrement et à moindre coût. De plus, la baisse des coûts de transport et la désagrégation des chaînes de production verticale dans plusieurs secteurs facilitent l’intégration des pays plus pauvres dans l’économie mondiale.

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