Un año al límite

NUEVA YORK – El año 2012 resultó tan malo como me lo había imaginado. La recesión en Europa fue la consecuencia predecible (y predicha) de sus políticas de austeridad y de un marco para el euro condenado al fracaso. La anémica recuperación estadounidense –con un crecimiento apenas suficiente para crear empleo para los nuevos ingresantes a la fuerza de trabajo– fue la consecuencia predecible (y predicha) de la parálisis política, que bloqueó la promulgación de la ley de empleo del presidente Barack Obama y envió a la economía hacia un «precipicio fiscal».

Las dos principales sorpresas fueron la desaceleración en los mercados emergentes, ligeramente más profunda y extendida que lo previsto, y la adopción europea de algunas reformas verdaderamente excepcionales –aunque no suficientes.

Una mirada hacia 2013 muestra que los mayores riesgos están en EE. UU. y Europa. China, por el contrario, tiene los instrumentos, recursos, incentivos y conocimiento necesarios para evitar un aterrizaje forzoso económico –y, a diferencia de los países occidentales, carece de partidarios comprometidos con ideas letales como la «austeridad expansiva».

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