Au bord du gouffre…

NEW-YORK – L'année 2012 aura été aussi mauvaise que je l'avais imaginée. La récession en Europe a été la conséquence prévisible et prévue de sa politique d'austérité et d'une faille dans la conception même de l'euro, ce qui le vouait à l'échec. Aux USA la croissance a été à peine suffisante pour créer les emplois voulus pour les nouveaux entrants sur le marché du travail. Cette reprise anémique a été elle aussi la conséquence prévisible et prévue d'un blocage politique qui a empêché l'adoption des mesures contre le chômage du président Obama et envoyé l'économie vers une "falaise budgétaire" (l'augmentation automatique des impôts et la réduction des dépenses au 1° janvier 2013).

Il y a eu cependant deux surprises en  2012 : le ralentissement dans les pays émergents un peu plus brutal et plus étendu que ce à quoi l'on s'attendait, et l'adoption par l'Europe de quelques réformes véritablement remarquables, mais encore très insuffisantes.

En 2013, les USA et l'Europe seront les lieux de tous les dangers. Par contre, la Chine dispose des instruments, des ressources, des incitations voulues et du savoir nécessaire pour éviter un atterrissage brutal de l'économie. Et contrairement à ce qui se passe dans les pays occidentaux, les idées destructrices telles que "l'austérité expansionniste" n'y font pas recette.

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