处在边缘的一年

发自纽约——2012年正如我想的一样糟糕。欧洲的经济衰退从其紧缩政策和注定失败的欧元体系中就能预测到(而且也预测中了)。美国的微弱复苏仅能勉强为其新生劳动力提供足够的工作岗位,这个结局从美国的政治僵局也能推测到(且预测中了),政治僵局使美国总统奥巴马无法实施其工作法案,也把整体经济推向了“财政悬崖”。

2012年出现了两大意外。一是新兴市场增长速度放缓,情况比预想中稍差且波及范围更广;二是欧洲采取了一些意义重大的改革—虽然远不及实际所需。

展望2013,最大的危机在美国和欧洲。对比之下,中国拥有各种各样的工具、资源、刺激方案和知识来避免经济硬着陆。而且中国不同于西方国家,没有会紧抓着“扩张型紧缩”等致命想法不放的选民。

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