Model house on calculator

How Much Debt Is Too Much?

Is there a “safe” debt/income ratio for households or debt-to-GDP ratio for governments? In both cases, the answer is yes, though the precise number depends on situation-specific factors, including who owns the debt and the purposes for which it was incurred.

LONDON – Is there a “safe” debt/income ratio for households or debt/GDP ratio for governments? In both cases, the answer is yes. And in both cases, it is impossible to say exactly what that ratio is. Nonetheless, this has become the most urgent macroeconomic question of the moment, owing not just to spiraling household and government debt since 2000, but also – and more important – to the excess concern that government debt is now eliciting.

According to a 2015 report by the McKinsey Global Institute, household debt in many advanced countries doubled, to more than 200% of income, between 2000 and 2007. Since then, households in the countries hardest hit in the 2008-2009 economic crisis have deleveraged somewhat, but the household debt ratio in most advanced countries has continued to grow.

The big upsurge in government debt followed the 2008-2009 collapse. For example, British government debt rose from just over 40% of GDP in 2007 to 92% today. Persistent efforts by heavily indebted governments to eliminate their deficits have caused debt ratios to rise, by shrinking GDP, as in Greece, or by delaying recovery, as in the UK.

We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Subscribe

Get unlimited access to PS premium content, including in-depth commentaries, book reviews, exclusive interviews, On Point, the Big Picture, the PS Archive, and our annual year-ahead magazine.

http://prosyn.org/Zcxcb9K;
  1. roach102_WallyMcNameeCORBISCorbisviaGettyImages_ReaganJapanpressconference Wally McNamee/CORBIS/Corbis via Getty Images

    Japan Then, China Now

    Stephen S. Roach

    Back in the 1980s, Japan was portrayed as the greatest economic threat to the United States, and allegations of intellectual property theft were only part of Americans' vilification. Thirty years later, Americans have made China the villain, when, just like three decades ago, they should be looking squarely in the mirror.

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.