Model house on calculator

多少债务算太多?

伦敦—存在“安全”的家庭债务/收入比或政府债务/GDP比吗?两个问题的答案都是肯定的。对于这两个问题,说出正确的比例为多少又都是不可能的。尽管如此,这已经成为眼下最紧迫的宏观经济问题,不但是因为2000年以来家庭和政府债务不断上升,也是因为——也更重要地——政府债务正在引起过多担忧。

据麦肯锡全球研究所的一份2015 年报告,许多发达国家家庭债务在2000—2007年间翻了一番,达到收入的200%。接着,受2008—2009年经济危机冲击最大的国家家庭债务有所下降,但大部分发达国家的家庭债务比仍在上升。

政府债务的大涨发生在2008—2009年崩盘之后。比如,英国政府债务从2007年进展GDP的40%出头增加到今天的92%。重债政府一直在采取措施消灭赤字,但这样导致GDP下降(如希腊)或复苏推迟(如英国),从而债务比例上升(如希腊)。

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