Les origines de la conduite russe

NEW YORK – Il est difficile de déterminer le laps de temps nécessaire avant que le journalisme ne cède le pas à l’histoire, mais normalement, les historiens écrivent avec l’avantage d’une perspective qui reflète le passage des ans, des décennies, ou même des siècles. Ce temps est nécessaire pour que l’information passe à la lumière, que les mémoires s’écrivent, et que le sens des évènements soit révélé. Ce qui peut sembler relativement trivial aujourd’hui peut s’avérer essentiel dans le temps, tout comme un événement majeur peut finalement perdre en importance.

Mais il se trouve que, que ce soit pour le meilleur ou pour le pire, l’Occident ne peut se permettre le luxe d’attendre de comprendre les récents évènements en Ukraine, tout simplement parce que rien ne prouve que ces évènements de Crimée resteront une exception. Des milliers de troupes russes restent postées à la frontière orientale de l’Ukraine ; et chaque jour rapporte son lot de nouveaux cas d’émeutes à l’intérieur de l’Ukraine, dont on présume qu’un grand nombre sont provoqués par la Russie.

Il nous faut donc agir rapidement pour comprendre ce que les récents évènements impliquent à propos de la Russie, de son président Vladimir Poutine, et de l’ordre international. Et il est tout aussi important d’en tirer rapidement les leçons.

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