当低价货币终结之时

发自伦敦——美联储主席本·伯南克的离任增加了外界关于美联储及其他央行将在何时用何种方式减少对长期资产的大笔收购行动——即所谓量化宽松——的踹测。观察者们也不放过任何一条新发布的经济数据来预测该政策的延续或加速规模缩减。但我们应该把更多的注意力放在不同经济参与者所产生的任意后果之上。

量化宽松的范围和规模已无需赘述。自金融危机爆发以来,美联储,欧洲央行,英格兰银行以及日本银行都利用量化宽松手段向本国经济体注入了超过4万亿美元的额外流动性。一旦这些政策走向终结,一些国家政府,新兴市场国家以及企业都可能变得弱不禁风。它们需要早作打算。

一项麦肯锡全球研究中心的研究显示低利率在2007至2012年间为美国和欧洲政府节省了近1.6万亿美元。这笔横财让它们可以增加政府支出并减少紧缩政策。如果利率回到2007年的水平,在其他因素不变的情况下政府债务中的利息支出将增加20%。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/Bn5kJGE/zh;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now