当低价货币终结之时

发自伦敦——美联储主席本·伯南克的离任增加了外界关于美联储及其他央行将在何时用何种方式减少对长期资产的大笔收购行动——即所谓量化宽松——的踹测。观察者们也不放过任何一条新发布的经济数据来预测该政策的延续或加速规模缩减。但我们应该把更多的注意力放在不同经济参与者所产生的任意后果之上。

量化宽松的范围和规模已无需赘述。自金融危机爆发以来,美联储,欧洲央行,英格兰银行以及日本银行都利用量化宽松手段向本国经济体注入了超过4万亿美元的额外流动性。一旦这些政策走向终结,一些国家政府,新兴市场国家以及企业都可能变得弱不禁风。它们需要早作打算。

一项麦肯锡全球研究中心的研究显示低利率在2007至2012年间为美国和欧洲政府节省了近1.6万亿美元。这笔横财让它们可以增加政府支出并减少紧缩政策。如果利率回到2007年的水平,在其他因素不变的情况下政府债务中的利息支出将增加20%。

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