De stille kennis economie

CAMBRIDGE – Bijna alle rijke landen zijn rijk omdat ze hun technische vooruitgang exploiteren. Ze hebben het grootste gedeelte van hun beroepsbevolking uit de landbouw gedwongen en naar de steden, waar kennis makkelijker gedeeld kan worden. Hun gezinnen hebben minder kinderen en onderwijzen deze intensiever, waarmee ze verdere technologische vooruitgang mogelijk maken.

Arme landen moeten door een zelfde verandering in orde gaan om rijk te worden; verminder de werkgelegenheid op boerderijen, wordt meer stedelijk, krijg minder kinderen en houd de kinderen die je hebt langer op school. Als ze dit doen dan opent de deur richting de voorspoed zich. En gebeurt dit niet al?

Laat ons bijvoorbeeld Brazilië in 2010 vergelijken met Groot-Brittannië in 1960. Brazilië was in 2010 83% verstedelijkt, het vruchtbaarheidscijfer was 1,8 kinderen per vrouw, de beroepsbevolking had een gemiddelde van 7,2 jaar aan scholing, en 5,2 % van de werknemers had een afgeronde universitaire opleiding. Dit zijn betere sociale indicatoren dan Groot-Brittannië in 1960 had. Toen was het Verenigd Koninkrijk 78,4% geürbaniseerd, het vruchtbaarheidscijfer was 2,7, de beroepsbevolking had gemiddeld zes jaar scholing en minder dan 2% van de potentiele beroepsbevolking was afgestudeerd.

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