Hledání konvergence

CAMBRIDGE – Jednou hádankou světové ekonomiky je to, že bohaté země světa 200 let rostly rychleji než ty chudší; Lant Pritchett tento proces výstižně nazval „obří rozbíhavostí“. Když Adam Smith v roce 1776 psal Bohatství národů, příjem na hlavu v nejbohatší zemi světa – zřejmě Nizozemsku – byl oproti nejchudším zemím asi čtyřnásobný. Dvě století nato bylo Nizozemsko 40krát bohatší než Čína, 24krát než Indie a desetkrát než Thajsko.

Během posledních tří desítek let se ale trend obrací. Nizozemsko je teď jen 11krát bohatší než Indie a sotva čtyřikrát než Čína a Thajsko. Laureát Nobelovy ceny, ekonom Michael Spence tento obrat postřehl a tvrdí, že svět má nakročeno k příští sbíhavosti.

Některé země se však stále vzdalují. Přestože roku 1980 bylo Nizozemsko 5,8krát, 7,7krát a 15krát bohatší než Nikaragua, Pobřeží slonoviny, respektive Keňa, do roku 2012 už bylo bohatší 10,5krát, 21,1krát a 24,4krát.

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