¿Hará default Venezuela?

CAMBRIDGE – ¿Hará default Venezuela? Los mercados temen que sí. Por esa razón, los bonos de la deuda externa venezolana rinden 11 puntos porcentuales más que los del Tesoro estadounidense, 12 veces más que los de México, 4 veces más que Nigeria y el doble de lo que paga Bolivia. En mayo pasado, Venezuela hizo una emisión “privada” por US$ 5.000 millones en bonos a 10 años con cupones del 6%. Para poder colocarla, tuvo que dar un descuento del 40% por lo que apenas recibió US$ 3.000 millones. La diferencia, US$2.000 millones, es la compensación que demandan los inversionistas por tomar el riesgo del país.

Se aproximan los primeros días de Octubre, en donde el Gobierno de Venezuela debe afrontar US$5.200 millones en pagos de servicio de deuda. ¿Pagará? ¿Tiene suficientes fondos líquidos? ¿Reunirá los fondos mediante una venta apresurada de CITGO, filial de PDVSA, la empresa petrolera estatal de Venezuela?

Es una buena pregunta. Otra pregunta diferente es si Venezuela debería pagar. Es cierto, qué deberían hacer los gobiernos no está totalmente divorciado de qué es lo que efectivamente harán, pues en general la gente hace lo que debe. Pero las preguntas que involucran “debe hacer” traen consigo juicios morales que no están presentes en las preguntas que involucran "hará”, y por eso suelen ser mucho más complejas.

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