委内瑞拉应该违约吗?

美国剑桥—委内瑞拉会对其外国债券违约吗?市场担心有这种可能。正因如此,委内瑞拉债券需要比美国国债多付11个百分点的利息,其利差比墨西哥高12倍,比尼日利亚高四倍,比玻利维亚高一倍。去年5月,委内瑞拉以6%的息票利率进行了50亿美元十年期债券的私人配售,结果折价40%才配售成功,筹资总额只有30亿美元。十年后,除了丰厚的票面利息,它还必须多支付20亿美元,这是投资者所要求的对其违约风险的补偿。

10月初的几天中,委内瑞拉需要支付52亿美元。它会支付吗?它有这么多现金吗?它会通过紧急出售CITGO筹资吗?CITGO目前为委内瑞拉国有石油公司PDVSA独有。

一个与此不同的问题是委内瑞拉是否应该支付。乍一看,政府应该做什么和它们会去做什么并不总是两个互相独立的问题,因为人们常常会去做应该做的事情。但“应该”的问题包含了某种形式的道德判断,而道德判断并不是“会去”问题的核心,这就让它们更加复杂了。

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