Die Revolutionierung des arabischen Wirtschaftsraumes

ISTANBUL – Die anhaltende Auseinandersetzung zwischen den Islamisten und den herrschenden Militärs in Ägypten ist eine deutliche Mahnung, wie schwierig der Übergang zur Demokratie im arabischen Raum sein wird. Aber eine sich daraus ergebende wirtschaftliche Untätigkeit wäre fast genauso schädigend für die Konsolidierung der Demokratie.

Die neuen Staats- und Regierungschefs, vom Islamisten zum ehemaligen Regimebeamten, wissen nur zu gut, dass ihre Länder dringend eine wirtschaftliche Perspektive benötigen, und dass ihre Popularität davon abhängt, ob sie Wachstum, Beschäftigung und höhere Lebensstandards liefern können. Dies wäre unter allen Umständen eine große Herausforderung, die durch die Destabilisierung des Wirtschaftssystems im gesamten Nahen Osten und in Nordafrika nach dem arabischen Frühling nur noch gewaltiger würde.

Sogar in Ländern wie Tunesien und Ägypten, wo der Übergang zur Demokratie schon weiter vorangeschritten ist, ist die politische Ungewissheit eine große Belastung für die Wirtschaftsleistung. Zum ersten Mal seit 1986 ist die tunesische Wirtschaft 2011 um 1,8 Prozent geschrumpft. Die Arbeitslosigkeit ist von 13 Prozent 2011 auf 18 Prozent im vergangenen Jahr gestiegen. Gleichzeitig schrumpfte die ägyptische Wirtschaft um 0,8 Prozent, und eine Million Ägypter haben ihre Arbeit verloren. Zudem fielen die ausländischen Nettoinvestitionen von 6,4 Milliarden US-Dollar 2010 auf magere 500 Millionen US-Dollar 2011.

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